The Strait of Hormuz saw only four vessels pass through yesterday, continuing its effective closure. The market for normal traffic returning by May 15 is at 16.5% YES, down from 20% twenty-four hou�...
Oil prices have climbed above $107 a barrel with the Strait of Hormuz still closed due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. The probability of crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% �...
Iran continues to move millions of barrels of crude oil around the US naval blockade. The Crude Oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% a week ago. Market reaction Tra�...
CENTCOM confirmed the U.S. Navy’s blockade has forced 38 ships to turn around from Iranian ports. The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 14.5% , d...
Hezbollah says it launched a drone and missile attack on Israeli troops and a tank. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sits at 100% YES, though the attack raises obvious questions a�...
Trump’s criticism of Norah O’Donnell on “60 Minutes” has the “Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30” market sitting at 100% YES. The April 30 market was already a...
Japan’s PM Takaichi confirmed oil supply security through 2027 despite Middle East disruptions. The market for a Bank of Japan rate decrease in April sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged from last week. Tak...
The $24 billion Iraq trade corridor proposal has emerged alongside continued Strait of Hormuz disruption, with the Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 market sitting at 0% YES and six days remai�...
Bitcoin has hit $79,000, and the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 now reflects strong bullish sentiment, with traders pricing in a much lower probability of that decline�...
A lone-actor assassination attempt targeting President Trump and his administration at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner has pushed traders to reassess Cabinet stability. The market for “next...