Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro have killed 12 people, pushing the probability of a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, down to 1.8% YES from 2% a week ago. Market reaction �...
Saudi Arabia’s NEOM has launched a new trade route linking Europe to the Gulf that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz ship transit market currently prices YES at a 15% expected decr...
Miner reserves have dropped by 61K BTC since the cycle began. Bitcoin staying above $62,000 on April 17 is at 99.9% YES. Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Core Scientific are offloading Bitcoi�...
The Fed’s April 2026 Beige Book describes slight to modest growth, with energy costs surging due to the Iran War. The likelihood of the Fed following a CutPausePause pattern by April is 0% . Marke...
Short-term Bitcoin holders transferred over 60,000 BTC to exchanges, the largest such move since February’s sell-off, and the Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 market sits at 3% YES. Large BTC inf...
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry reaffirmed Lebanon’s inclusion in the US-Iran ceasefire, despite ongoing military operations. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 64.8% YES. ...
Sen. Fetterman’s comments on intensifying US military action against Iran are moving prediction markets. The Iran leadership change contract (by end of 2026) sits at 21.5% YES, a 15% increase in l...
Iran’s military rhetoric has escalated with press statements hinting at readiness to sink US warships. Odds for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 2.3% YES, while the European Central...
Oil prices surged to $210 in Singapore as the US-Israeli war with Iran disrupts global supply chains. The Polymarket contract for WTI crude oil hitting $160 in April sits at 25% YES, with 14 days u�...
The U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, hitting over two dozen entities. This coincides with the expiration of a 30-day waiver for 140 million barrels of Iranian oil, which won...