A Balancer attacker has converted 21k ETH (about $48.7M) to 617 BTC over three days, leaving only 1k ETH in the hacker’s address. The probability of another $100 million crypto hack by December 31 i...
Handala, a pro-resistance hacking group linked to Iran, published the identities of senior officers from an elite Israeli special ops unit. The market on whether Iran will strike Israel by April 30 s�...
Iran has proposed a framework for talks with the US while stressing deep distrust. The “no qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30” contract now trades at 14.3% YES, up from 9% yesterday. Mark...
Trump pulled the plug on US-Iran peace talks, and the April 30 permanent peace deal market dropped to 3.8% YES, down from 10% yesterday. The collapse hit related markets across the board. The May �...
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departed Pakistan without meeting a US delegation. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 25 sits at 2% YES. Market reaction Markets for US-Iran diplomati�...
Trump’s plan to seize Iran’s enriched uranium signals a hardline stance that makes an April 30 nuclear deal less likely. The odds of Iran agreeing to end enrichment by April 30 sit at 5.8% YES, ...
S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin calls a Strait of Hormuz crisis the largest energy disruption ever. Crude Oil all time high by April 30 sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% a day ago. Yergin’s warning...
Thousands in Israel are choosing jail over military service, but prediction markets show little expectation this will topple the government. Netanyahu out by June 30 sits at 6% YES. Market reactio�...
NBC reports U.S. bases in the Middle East sustained far more damage than publicly acknowledged. Military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 0.9% YES, down from 2% a day ago. Market reaction �...
Sanctioned ships are reportedly passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite a US blockade. The market on Trump announcing the blockade’s lifting by May 31 sits at 63% YES, down from 72% yesterday...