Anthropic confirmed the release of Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the prediction market for its release date. The April 16 contract sits at 100% YES, up from 46% a day ago. Market reaction The April �...
Trump dismissed a 20-year minimum for a uranium deal with Iran, raising barriers to an agreement. The odds for Iran ending enrichment by April 30 are at 46.3% YES, up from 35% a day ago. Traders i�...
Bitcoin tagged $75,000, and the Polymarket prediction for Bitcoin reaching $78,000-$80,000 by April 15 now shows 100% YES, up from 20% a week ago. The move to $75,000 coincided with $89M in short li�...
Morgan Stanley is embedding cryptocurrency operations throughout the firm and has launched the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16 sits at 99.9% YES. The Bitcoin Trust �...
Iranian military advisor Mohsen Rezaei’s remarks threatening to sink US warships have pushed odds lower on the uranium transfer market. US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 is at 22.5% ...
Over $7.4 billion in long positions face liquidation if Bitcoin dips to close the $67,180 CME gap. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16 is at 99.9% YES. Market reaction The liquidation risk is weigh�...
Iran wants Lebanon included in any ceasefire agreement with the US. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 22 sit at 24.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. This development touches two markets: US x�...
Trump claims Iran has “totally agreed” to abandon its nuclear ambitions, pushing odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April to 43% YES, up from 28% a week ago. Traders have...
Eric Swalwell has resigned from Congress following sexual assault allegations, and the Polymarket contract predicting his departure by May 31 now sits at 100% YES. Market reaction The market had �...
Charles Schwab will offer direct Bitcoin trading to its 38.9 million brokerage accounts. The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at ? YES. Market reaction The market r�...