US crude exports have reached a record 5.2 million barrels per day during the ongoing Iran conflict. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market sits at 2.6% YES, down from 7% yesterday, while the �...
Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam criticized security forces for focusing on minor issues instead of Hezbollah disarmament. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 market sits at 100% YES, unchange...
The Sultan of Oman met with Iran’s Foreign Minister to discuss regional developments and mediation efforts. The odds of Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 sit at 1.9% YES...
President Zelensky marked the 40th anniversary of Chornobyl by urging an end to “Russian nuclear terrorism.” The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026, market now sits at 0.5% YES, down fro...
Secret Service agents evacuated Donald Trump and cabinet members after a gunman opened fire at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, pushing odds on the Next to Leave Trump Cabinet market up by an...
Over 600 commercial ships remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the odds of traffic normalization by May 15 down to 13.5% YES, from 20% yesterday. Market reaction The stranded ships ar�...
Iranian lawmaker Mahmoud Nabavian has dismissed demands for a role in managing the Strait of Hormuz and a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market has dropped �...
A potential liquidation of $2.25 billion in crypto short positions looms if Bitcoin reaches $80,000, and the Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April market has seen odds decrease as this upward pressure buil�...
Israel’s haredi draft crisis is escalating and threatening Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition. The Polymarket contract on Netanyahu stepping down by June 30 trades at 5.5% YES, a slight decrea...
Bitcoin futures saw over $600M in long liquidations, a level not reached since the February 6 “Black Sunday II” market turmoil. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 s...