Iran denied Trump’s suggestion of a uranium handover to secure peace. The market for Iran surrendering its stockpile by April 30 is at 45% YES, up from 25% yesterday but likely to face pressure. ...
Stocks reached new highs with Nasdaq up double digits in April. The S&P 500 contract for April 15 sits at 100% YES, up from 85% just 24 hours ago. The April 15 S&P 500 market now fully pri�...
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has absorbed over 9,631 BTC in five days during US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian responses. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by March 31, 202...
Nikita Bier said aggregated data from Xs new trading pilot points to roughly $1 billion in global volume since Tuesday nights rollout. X said its new cashtags pilot has driven an estimated $1 billion�...
Spot crypto trading volumes fell to $1.27T in March, the lowest since September 2024. Bitcoin above $58,000 on April 14 remains at 100% YES. US-Iran tensions have driven capital rotation toward oil �...
US President Trump claims Iran will halt backing for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. A US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100% YES. Market reaction The April 30 diplomatic meeting ma�...
Iran’s Foreign Ministry says US statements don’t reflect negotiation realities, casting doubt on a peace deal by April 22. The likelihood of a peace agreement now sits at 28.5% YES. Market reac...
A senior US official announced that President Trump’s ceasefire agreement includes a ban on Israeli offensive actions in Lebanon, while allowing self-defense against Hezbollah. Odds for Israel suspe...
The S&P 500 opening prediction for April 16 on Polymarket sits at 99.9% YES, as the US stock market has rebounded to all-time highs amid strong earnings expectations. Market reaction A tempor�...
The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran and the US are expected to meet again in Pakistan, with the Polymarket ceasefire-by-April-22 contract at 5.5% YES. The market for a US-Iran diplomatic mee�...