Lebanon and Israel have extended their ceasefire for another three weeks following discussions at the White House. The market for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 sits at 1�...
French President Emmanuel Macron is rallying Europe to aid Lebanon and has announced an upcoming conference involving regional countries. The market for an Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by Apri�...
Kuwait International Airport plans to resume operations on April 26, a sign of localized de-escalation in the Gulf region. The market for Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 5�...
Iranian air defenses engaged hostile targets over Tehran amid ongoing conflict. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The market for Irani�...
Pakistan is moving to become a Gulf security backbone as the US draws down militarily in West Asia. Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 4% YES, down from 10% yesterday. Gul�...
The U.S. military has seized another oil tanker linked to Iran, escalating tensions in the region. The likelihood of the U.S. Navy escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 �...
The US military seized an oil tanker associated with Iran, pushing odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April down to 17% YES, from 26% a day ago. Market reaction Traders dro�...
An Iranian diplomatic source says a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations is reportedly imminent. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 10.4% YES, down from 14% ju�...
US jobless claims and manufacturing data came out on April 23, 2026, while the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global oil flows. The probability of a Fed rate cut after the June 2026 meetin�...
Iranian sources claim US-Iran negotiations could see a breakthrough “tonight or tomorrow.” The odds for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 10.4% YES, down from 14% yester...