The US House rejected a resolution to withdraw troops from Iran by a 213-214 vote. The market on the US declaring war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is at 7.5% YES. Market reaction The April 30 ma�...
Trump stated “If there’s no deal, fighting resumes,” adding geopolitical tension to crypto markets. The Bitcoin $60,000 dip market sits at 15% YES for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April. Mar...
President Trump expressed optimism about a potential deal with Iran, citing the effectiveness of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 �...
A White House memo signals possible agency access to a modified version of Anthropics restricted Mythos model, which remains under tight controls over cyber misuse fears. The US government is prepari�...
The U.S. is preparing to counter Iranian fast-attack boats using lethal tactics proven effective in Venezuela. Kharg Island control by June 30 is at 12.5% . Market reaction The Kharg Island contro�...
Trump expressed willingness to visit Pakistan to finalize a US-Iran deal. The permanent peace deal market for April 22, 2026, is at 28.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. Market reaction Trump’s com...
Trump’s warning of renewed hostilities if no ceasefire deal is reached has pushed traders further toward skepticism on a quick resolution. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 8% ...
Netanyahu has agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon, brokered by Trump, to advance peace negotiations. The market for Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 is at 99.0% YES. The tempor�...
The White House said Iran’s ability to conduct business is severely hindered by the ongoing U.S.-led blockade. The uranium enrichment agreement market for April 30 moved to 39.2% YES, up from 35% ...
Israel’s reported secret meeting with Marine Le Pen marks a break in its longstanding boycott of the National Rally party, and her 2027 French presidential election odds now sit at 5.5% YES, down ...