The UK and France will host a summit to discuss setting up a naval force aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The market on whether the UK will send warships through the s�...
US import prices climbed 0.8% in March, driven largely by higher fuel prices, as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran continues to disrupt oil markets. The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in A�...
Hezbollah launched a barrage hours after a ceasefire announcement, injuring several people in the Upper Galilee. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 99.6% YES, down from 94% earlier today. Ma�...
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is in Doha to facilitate US-Iran talks. The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 100% YES. Market reaction The market for no diplom...
Anthropic confirmed the release of Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the prediction market for its release date. The April 16 contract sits at 100% YES, up from 46% a day ago. Market reaction The April �...
Trump dismissed a 20-year minimum for a uranium deal with Iran, raising barriers to an agreement. The odds for Iran ending enrichment by April 30 are at 46.3% YES, up from 35% a day ago. Traders i�...
Bitcoin tagged $75,000, and the Polymarket prediction for Bitcoin reaching $78,000-$80,000 by April 15 now shows 100% YES, up from 20% a week ago. The move to $75,000 coincided with $89M in short li�...
Morgan Stanley is embedding cryptocurrency operations throughout the firm and has launched the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16 sits at 99.9% YES. The Bitcoin Trust �...
Iranian military advisor Mohsen Rezaei’s remarks threatening to sink US warships have pushed odds lower on the uranium transfer market. US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 is at 22.5% ...
Over $7.4 billion in long positions face liquidation if Bitcoin dips to close the $67,180 CME gap. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16 is at 99.9% YES. Market reaction The liquidation risk is weigh�...