Trump’s comments on NATO’s lack of support during the Israel-US strikes on Iran have pushed the likelihood of a US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 to 1.2% YES, up slightly from 1% yesterday. T...
Trump signaled Iran’s increased willingness to negotiate, pushing odds of a deal on oil sanctions in April to 36% YES. The market climbed from 34% yesterday and 28% a week ago. Trump’s remarks ...
President Trump raised concerns over recent mysterious deaths of U.S. scientists, hinting at possible Iranian espionage links. The odds of a qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sit at 2%�...
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that President Trump remains committed to maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the May 31 lifting market to 82% YES. Market ...
The US House rejected a resolution to withdraw troops from Iran by a 213-214 vote. The market on the US declaring war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is at 7.5% YES. Market reaction The April 30 ma�...
Trump stated “If there’s no deal, fighting resumes,” adding geopolitical tension to crypto markets. The Bitcoin $60,000 dip market sits at 15% YES for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April. Mar...
President Trump expressed optimism about a potential deal with Iran, citing the effectiveness of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 �...
A White House memo signals possible agency access to a modified version of Anthropics restricted Mythos model, which remains under tight controls over cyber misuse fears. The US government is prepari�...
The U.S. is preparing to counter Iranian fast-attack boats using lethal tactics proven effective in Venezuela. Kharg Island control by June 30 is at 12.5% . Market reaction The Kharg Island contro�...
Trump expressed willingness to visit Pakistan to finalize a US-Iran deal. The permanent peace deal market for April 22, 2026, is at 28.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. Market reaction Trump’s com...