Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Lauren Boebert have jointly demanded greater accountability for sexual misconduct in Congress following the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales. The Pol�...
The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings struck a pessimistic note on the global economy, with the US recession by end of 2026 market sitting at 0% YES on Polymarket. Market reaction The war involving �...
An Iranian military official claims missile readiness forced a halt to attacks on Lebanon. The Polymarket contract for Israeli military action in Greater Beirut by April 1 is at 100% YES. Market rea�...
The US House rejected a resolution to limit President Trump’s authority to wage war with Iran. The odds of a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at 7.5% YES, down slightly from...
US-Iran negotiations broke down in Islamabad, and the Polymarket contract for a permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 21.5% YES, up slightly from 12% a week ago. Market reaction The April 30 m�...
Donald Trump criticized Italy after reports surfaced that Rome denied US military aircraft access to a Sicilian airbase linked to the Iran conflict. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 1.2% �...
A ceasefire has taken effect in Lebanon, though Hezbollah’s disarmament and Israel’s withdrawal remain tied to U.S.-Iran negotiations. The market for a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, is at 94% YES...
Pakistan announced that no date is set for the next round of US-Iran talks. The ceasefire by April 22 market is at 21.5% YES. ## Market reaction The lack of a scheduled second round has introduce�...
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced AI deployment to offset a 21.5% staffing cut, affecting crypto and prediction market oversight. Bitcoin above $62,000 on April 20 is at 99.6% YES. The CFTC’s...
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Doha as part of efforts to mediate the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Iran’s uranium stockpile surrender by April 30 sits at 41.4% YES, up from 25%...