Day 56 of the extended ceasefire in the 2026 Iran War has produced no progress on diplomatic fronts. The probability of Donald Trump attending a meeting with Iran by April 30 has dropped to 2% YES,�...
The US-Iran ceasefire has expired and tensions are rising, but Bitcoin’s odds of dipping to $60,000 in April sit at just 1.4% on Polymarket. Bitcoin’s odds of hitting $60,000 in April are at 1....
China’s foreign ministry advised its citizens to leave Iran or relocate to safer areas, citing security risks. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sit at 8.5% YES, up from 6% a week ...
Trump is weighing punitive actions against NATO allies who refused U.S. support in the Iran conflict. The probability of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 0.5% YES. The potential pen�...
Trump’s move to reclassify medical marijuana to Schedule III has shifted prediction markets. The likelihood of marijuana being rescheduled by December 31 is now at 42.8% , down from 62% yesterday. ...
Persian Gulf nations are producing 14.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels after a Strait of Hormuz closure triggered by a US-Israel attack, and crude oil prediction markets are adjusting t�...
A strong El Niño forecast is compounding supply concerns in crude oil markets already disrupted by the Iran conflict, with a Polymarket contract tracking whether Crude Oil (CL) will hit $90 by June 3...
Trump faces a May 1 deadline to justify ongoing military operations against Iran under the War Powers Resolution. The likelihood of the U.S. declaring war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sits at 7% Y�...
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2 billion in inflows over the past eight days. The market for Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by June 30 is at 3% YES. The capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs has�...
China’s fiscal expenditures increased 2.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, while government land sales income fell 24.4% as the real estate downturn continued. The market for China’s 2026 annual GDP grow...