China’s foreign minister announced a priority to push the US and Iran back to the negotiation table. The Polymarket contract for no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30 sits at 2.1% YE...
Henry Paulson warned that the U.S. needs a contingency plan if demand for Treasuries collapses, and the odds of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 sit at 23% YES on Polymarket. Paulson’s remarks...
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict poses global economic risks, particularly through accelerated inflation. On Polymarket, the market for a 50+ bps ECB rat�...
OpenAI plans to go public, but CEO Sam Altman’s financial interests remain opaque. On the IPOs before 2027 market, odds for an OpenAI IPO before 2027 sit at 15% YES. ## Market reaction The IPO a...
Israel’s elite naval unit Shayetet 13 carried out a seaborne invasion of Naqoura, Lebanon on April 14, 2026, the first such operation since 2000. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market no...
Bitcoin miners offloaded a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing their entire sell-off for 2025, as hashprice hovers around $33/PH/s. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching an all-ti�...
Residents are returning to southern Lebanon amid celebrations following a 10-day ceasefire with Israel. The ceasefire, which started at midnight, has pushed the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April �...
The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has intensified, and Polymarket contracts tracking Iran’s political future are moving in response. The “Iran Leadership Status” market predicts a le...
Israeli public sentiment is souring amid a US-Iran ceasefire, with despair rising and trust in leadership falling. The Iran military action by April 30 market sits at 100% YES. Market reaction Th�...
The US is delaying weapons deliveries to some European countries to prioritize its military needs in the Iran theater. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of May is at 34% YES. �...