Israel’s haredi draft crisis is escalating and threatening Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition. The Polymarket contract on Netanyahu stepping down by June 30 trades at 5.5% YES, a slight decrea...
Bitcoin futures saw over $600M in long liquidations, a level not reached since the February 6 “Black Sunday II” market turmoil. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 s...
Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, putting pressure on a fragile ceasefire. The ceasefire with Hezbollah by April 30 market sits at 100% YES. The ceasefire technically holds, but�...
The Iran conflict is moving energy-related prediction markets, with crude oil all-time high by April 30 sitting at 1.6% YES, down from 2% a day ago. Market reaction The April 30 crude oil market �...
The Kelp DAO exploit drained $292 million, leaving Aave with $196 million in bad debt. Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 4% YES, unchanged this week. Market reaction The exp�...
Baker Hughes has warned that the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed through 2026, and the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0.5% YES, unchanged from a day ago. �...
The IDF struck Al-Khaiam in southern Lebanon while fighting with Hezbollah continues. The market for an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026, is at 100% YES. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasef�...
Bitcoin has reclaimed the -0.5 MVRV pricing band at $73,700, with this level now acting as support and a mean reversion target around $96,000. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by�...
Hedge funds are selling tech stocks at the fastest rate in two years, raising concerns about broader market sentiment. The Polymarket contract on the S&P 500 opening higher on April 24 is at 99.9�...
Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings have fallen for the seventh consecutive week to their lowest level since the war in Ukraine began, while the market on Putin being out as President of Russia by Jun...