Tehran sent a negotiating team to Islamabad today. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 20.5% , down from 16% yesterday. Market reaction The April 22 peace deal market dropp�...
Iran has yet to confirm participation in Pakistan-hosted talks, casting doubt on diplomatic progress. The chance of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 19.5% , down from 16% just 24 h�...
Iran’s judiciary chief called US actions a “war crime” on Tuesday, citing the blockade of Iranian ports and an attack on a commercial vessel. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June...
IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi is gaining the upper hand over moderates like Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf in Iran’s internal power struggle, and the likelihood of a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 has dr...
Bitcoin has bounced back to $75,000 as US-Iran ceasefire negotiations show progress, reducing the odds that Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 in April 2026. Market reaction The ceasefire talks have pushe�...
The US expressed optimism about peace talks with Iran, but the ceasefire is approaching its end without a clear resolution. Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by April 30 is �...
Bulgaria’s eighth parliamentary election concluded with Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party winning decisively, and the market for Radev becoming the next Prime Minister now sits at 98.4% Y...
Tim Cook will step down as Apple’s CEO on September 1, 2026, with John Ternus set to take over. The leadership change has moved odds on NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 to 8...
Trump’s assertion of a superior Iran deal has shifted odds on sanction relief. The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is now at 43% YES, up from 38% twenty-four h...
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran would not yield to US demands under pressure. The market for Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by April 30 sits at 28.1% YES. Market re�...